NIA CHARLESTOWN NEVIS (September 08, 2017) — The following is an advisory on Hurricane Jose from the Nevis Disaster Management Department (NDMD) in the Nevis Island Administration (NIA) dated September 08, 2017.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH STATEMENT
BULLETIN

Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017

1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017

…JOSE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…16.3N 57.1W
ABOUT 415 MI…670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 375 MILES ESE OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…942 MB…27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for St. Thomas and St. John.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands.
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
St. Thomas and St. John

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 57.1 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.

Recent data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure indicated by data from the aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Forecaster Zelinsky